Micro Mart Forum / PC Talk / Micro Mart Forums / Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?" / Latest Posts

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Attercop — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 22:59:26 GMT

Very interesting read.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

wyliecoyoteuk — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:18:04 GMT

[url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7540282.stm] interesting[/url] eh?

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Slipstreem — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 23:32:29 GMT

[quote][b]darrelljon (27/07/2008)[/b][hr]...many users continue to run Windows 98. You'd be well advised to look at neowin and msfn.org forums where users find ways around awkward hardware support and drivers for Windows 98 if you want to continue running it.[/quote]
Thank you very much for the info. I may give it a try on my second rig and see if I can dual-boot it with WinXP Home. As much as I'd like to be able to go back to Win98SE (laugh if you like), I'd still like an old-school Win98SE [i]and[/i] a big-girl's WinXP Home bootable separately on the same rig so I can get back to playing some classic Win98 games. There were some fantastic games around that just [i]won't[/i] run under WinXP Home no matter what you do to help them. This may be a fun solution.

Thanks again. :)

Cheers, Slipstreem. :cool:

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

wyliecoyoteuk — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 23:12:00 GMT

Just an a note, Yahoo just announced that they are going to dump their DRM riddled music service too, (real rhapsody as an alternative for new tracks) and no refunds or alternatives for already purchased tracks.
Isn't proprietary software wonderful?

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

darrelljon — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 16:40:38 GMT

[quote][b]Slipstreem (26/07/2008)[/b][hr][quote][b]wyliecoyoteuk (26/07/2008)[/b][hr]As another thought(hence new post)
MS have said that Xp users will be allowed to to use the OS forever.
They have not said that they will be able to re-install it forever.
How long before it becomes impossible to re-activate XP?[/quote]

Saying that we can use it forever infers (to me personally)that we can reactivate it forever. I guess that once the OS is no longer of any financial value to M$, they may well just allow everybody to activate with no checks taking place. After all, it wouldn't actually cost them anything to allow this to happen.I suppose the question is, how long will people want to stay with it?

I remember being [i]very[/i] reluctant to leave Win98SE due to it being 100% stable at all times and blindingly faston the hardware I ran it on. I only moved to XP [i]very[/i] reluctantly when none of the newer hardware I bought came with Win98 drivers.

Regardless of which OS we choose, we're ultimately in the hands of the hardware manufacturers and which OSes [i]they[/i] decide to support (or not). Short of being fortunate enough to find satisfactorythird-party drivers,hardwareobsolescence is largelyOS-independent in that respect.:)

Cheers, Slipstreem. :cool:[/quote]
Though Microsoft says Windows Product Activation (WPA) was introduced to stop piracy it also gives Microsoft the power to stop activating fresh installations. It costs money to run activation servers and Microsoft make money from users upgrading their software. It should be clear where Microsoft's interests lie in WPA - and users do not benefit from WPA at all. Fortunately Windows 98 and Windows 2000 do not require activation, which is one of the reasons many users continue to run Windows 98. You'd be well advised to look at neowin and msfn.org forums where users find ways around awkward hardware support and drivers for Windows 98 if you want to continue running it.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

malc_wright — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:45:03 GMT

The real killer for Microsoft isn't on the operating system side but the Office suite side, that's why they moved heaven and earth to get OOXML ratified as an Open Document Format.

That way there will always be the possibility of anew Office suite which makes use of the latest upgrade open standard, roughly at about the same time the upgraded standard is launched. Its probably Microsofts only hope of retaining its real money making market, as Government and Enterprise baulk at the cost of supporting proprietary standards.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

wyliecoyoteuk — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:21:20 GMT

[quote][b]Slipstreem (26/07/2008)[/b][hr][

Saying that we can use it forever infers (to me personally)that we can reactivate it forever. I guess that once the OS is no longer of any financial value to M$, they may well just allow everybody to activate with no checks taking place. After all, it wouldn't actually cost them anything to allow this to happen.I suppose the question is, how long will people want to stay with it?

[/quote]

Well, MSN music servers were extended to 2011 after protests, but they originally planned to just turn them off last year.
I expect that activation servers will eventually go off-line. Microsoft want you to buy new product, there is little gain in supporting old stuff forever.

Probably device drivers for XP will become a problem before then. Some laptop products for example, are already shipping with Vista only hardware, so by the time they are turned off, it is likely that very few people will notice.

On the open-source side, more legacy hardware is still supported Under Linux than even under XP, and I can't see that changing much.
Whereas if a company goes out of business, or is taken over,, there is no-one to write new drivers for new versions of windows, the OS community continue support for Linux , BSD etc.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

wyliecoyoteuk — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:10:31 GMT

[quote][b]BigT (27/07/2008)[/b][hr]I may be wrong guys, but I remember reading about a certain mobo manufacturer including a basic linux os? It seems to me that this may be the future worming its way in. A hardware os, enough to get the machine up and running, online and a few basic tasks, then the user has a choice of using online packages to work with, or to download onto computer to use (paid or unpaid). If this is going to happen, if Ms want to stay in the running, they will need to write a cut down version of their os to do this.
[/quote]
This has actually been happening for some time, some media-centre PCs have done it since 2003.
[quote]
I may be wrong, but such an os would probably be much more secure that what we use at present - especially if it has to be flashed to upgrade it, and the control for that is completely in the hands of the user.

Thinking about it this way, I see MS slowly strangling as I get the impression that it is too much of a leviathan to adjust to such radical changes.[/quote]

Windows XPe is the latest embedded version of Windows (following on from WinCE), so they already have!

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

BigT — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 04:16:37 GMT

I may be wrong guys, but I remember reading about a certain mobo manufacturer including a basic linux os? It seems to me that this may be the future worming its way in. A hardware os, enough to get the machine up and running, online and a few basic tasks, then the user has a choice of using online packages to work with, or to download onto computer to use (paid or unpaid). If this is going to happen, if Ms want to stay in the running, they will need to write a cut down version of their os to do this.

I may be wrong, but such an os would probably be much more secure that what we use at present - especially if it has to be flashed to upgrade it, and the control for that is completely in the hands of the user.

Thinking about it this way, I see MS slowly strangling as I get the impression that it is too much of a leviathan to adjust to such radical changes.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Slipstreem — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 22:52:51 GMT

[quote][b]wyliecoyoteuk (26/07/2008)[/b][hr]As another thought(hence new post)
MS have said that Xp users will be allowed to to use the OS forever.
They have not said that they will be able to re-install it forever.
How long before it becomes impossible to re-activate XP?[/quote]

Saying that we can use it forever infers (to me personally) that we can reactivate it forever. I guess that once the OS is no longer of any financial value to M$, they may well just allow everybody to activate with no checks taking place. After all, it wouldn't actually cost them anything to allow this to happen. I suppose the question is, how long will people want to stay with it?

I remember being [i]very[/i] reluctant to leave Win98SE due to it being 100% stable at all times and blindingly fast on the hardware I ran it on. I only moved to XP [i]very[/i] reluctantly when none of the newer hardware I bought came with Win98 drivers.

Regardless of which OS we choose, we're ultimately in the hands of the hardware manufacturers and which OSes [i]they[/i] decide to support (or not). Short of being fortunate enough to find satisfactory third-party drivers, hardware obsolescence is largely OS-independent in that respect. :)

Cheers, Slipstreem. :cool:

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

wyliecoyoteuk — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 22:07:39 GMT

As another thought(hence new post)
MS have said that Xp users will be allowed to to use the OS forever.
They have not said that they will be able to re-install it forever.
How long before it becomes impossible to re-activate XP?

Another reason to consider open-source solutions.

You can still install W98 or ME or W2k, and use it.
But activation allows the supplier to decide a cut-off point.
Several software companies that I know have already set that cut-off point at 4 years.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

darrelljon — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 23:14:07 GMT

I just wanna say I liked the article.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

wyliecoyoteuk — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 22:49:56 GMT

With the present state of the world economy, a Microsoft crash could well be a devastating blow to the western world.
Personally, I doubt that MS will crash, but it may slowly fade, in much the same way as IBM has.
The business model is what is starting to struggle.
Software, Music and Video industries have come to rely on reselling the same back catalogue over and over again, but the media is becoming more durable ( how many copies of "Queen's Greatest hits" can one person listen to?), and the software has reached a point where upgrading is an option, not a "must have".

The business model that relies on reselling a "new, improved" version every few years is struggling because the "improvements" are often just differences with little advantage, in fact, they often have disadvantages compared to their predecessor.
In terms of the business world, the disadvantages are retraining, reconfiguring, and refinancing (hardware and software). The advantages are small for most companies, and the costs are too high.
The ROI on Vista and Office 2007 are negative in general, and those 2 units are the Lifeblood of MS.
If MS hadn't marketed Vista in the way it did, as a "media rich " OS, If it had actually fixed some bugs that have been around since XP, If it hadn't produced something with such an enlarged resource footprint, if it hadn't inflated the price so much, if it hadn't launched it too early... Not one mistake, but many.

Business in general is not keen on taking the step to Vista, and that is where the money really is.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Bruce R — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:48:20 GMT

Hi Tom :)
Enjoyed reading your posts. I was simply worried that you might have misunderstood my comment about two actually separate math theories (never too good at higher math).
Although MS might suddenly fall apart, there's a lot of inertia in the situation, so a whimpering decay is more likely ? Steve Ballmer has been taking enough stick to start listening to customers (never his or Bill's strong point), but time will tell whether they can change and their gigantic cash mountain pillow can't last forever.
(As a humerous aside, I have been fascinated by how, if you value your job in Microsoft or at the BBC, you don't tell the emperor that he's actually got no clothes on !)

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Tom Morton — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:30:34 GMT

Yeh sorry for that OT. Close on your definitions: Chaos theory actually works on the idea that seemingly random choices are actually predictable based on the system inputs.

Uh I probably took your comments too literally :P

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Bruce R — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:54:24 GMT

Let's not get into a sidetrack on whether Climate change is happening, but for the record, I think that it is. Coming back to MS and Chaos or Catastrophe theories. As I understand it, Chaos math can explain how a seemingly unrelated small incident can lead to a larger change, happening in quite everyday situations, whilst Catastrophe Theory can explain major jumps to a quite different and therefore less predictable curve.
So, although they are resistant to change, a small piece of ingenuity could end up having a major impact on MS fortunes. On the other hand, a dramatic change could lead to a completely different course and outcome. Does that make better sense ?
Mind you, I still think that conspicuous consumerism, as per 'The Waste Makers' has had its day.
American car buyers seem to agree, now demanding non gas guzzlers, so artificially stimulated new demands may well wane for MS too in their otherwise traditional pursuit of the 'US business model'.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Tom Morton — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:50:52 GMT

Where do you work :)? We have almost 100% Linux rigs at work doing no end of tasks (and 90% of the companies we go into to do pen testing also run Linux as their backbone/infrastructure). What media codecs and drivers does windows have that precludes Linux as a business / infrastructure OS? I have not had a driver problem with linux yet :P

Remember drivers are written by the hardware manufacturers NOT Microsoft - in the consumer market there are very few provided drivers because Linux isn't mainstream. On the infrastructure side there are plenty of drivers kicking about: because Linux has a much bigger market share than in the consumer market there is a demand.

Red Hat and co do charge for their OS (ok so with Red hat you just use fedora as it is essentially the same but free but you now cannot dl Red Hat without a subscription).

Looking at the options you proposed... (I've discussed 3 above.. they do already charge). MacOS won't take over: it is dying as faster than Windows as a mainstream OS. As a server or infrastructure OS it just does NOT cut the mustard (for 101 reasons). Apple are never going to put the investment in to make it good enough because a) they rely (and always have) on specialist markets and seem quite happy catering for digital design / creativity with their OS (and rightly so!) and b) the amount of work to steal some market share wouldnt make it worth while I reckon.

in terms of #2: I see that as unlikely. If they did then they would lose even more face. If they released a server/infrastructure OS (like Win server 2003) built on Linux then they would probably not sell too many of them. Sysadmins aren't dumb folk and unless it was a stellar OS with huge improvements over the likes of Red Hat etc. then they wouldn't use it (I certainly would have to be majorly impressed to be tempted). As a desktop OS they wont do it either: the legal shenanigans that might ensue (probably not from SCO but other places) make it not really worth the risk (if their tied in legal battles - which they WOULD rightly win anyway - for years then it takes the edge off things :P). Besides that technology is less licensable (they cant sell the OS remember ONLY support for it) than software they hold the copyright for.

And to cap it all I dont agree Windows is dying. Win Server 2003 is still a great enterprise app (we do use it on a few servers where it is just easier for now) that is still solid enough to provide a backbone. Yes Win 2003 is long in the tooth but in big business migration to new systems takes years! Certainly any new setups coming online are Linux based: and the old Windows based infrastructures are being replaced as / or when they break.

For the consumer market I think Windows is doing fine. XP is a bit of a sticking point (I have never liked it :() but Vista is a great end to this family cycle of Windows (I'm not going to get into *that* discussion because most people - a bit thickly IMO - didn't buy the cheap Home Basic version of Vista which is a STONKING OS). I admit they rushed it out as a stop gap (I think because they believed people were so fed up of XP that something new was needed). The next version I expect to be a lot better.

In 10 or so years time I do see a shift. I fully expect to see Linux with a huge market share in the infrastructure and server market (with Windows basically not featuring) with a smattering of SUN/Solaris and any other *nix/BSD based offerings (there are a few that look promising at the moment). Whilst I expect Windows to continue to dominate the consumer and desktop market. :)

[quote]Of course, Linux would continue as a community-driven OS under this model as well. But the $$$ that have persuaded NVidia and Apples QT division to invest in Linux won't be there. Thus, those iconoclasts amongst us who cleave to a "hobbyist" Linux will have to rely on reverse-engineered versions of drivers and media apps - which take longer to develop, are fraught with legal difficulties and can be voided by a twist in the codec.[/quote]

Don't forget that the core development of the Linux kernel (and a lot of the key supporting bits and bobs) are more like big businesses now (the FSF has had a huge impact on this). I really dont see the funding drying up. Remember again that whilst all those companies you mention can make money from Linux they still rely on the huge community and so on to keep the core stuff ticking over. Dragging their version of Linux into a closed source context would just cost them too much (much more than any damage done by open sourcing - or partially open sourcing - their changes).

BTW MS will never go bankrupt: huge companies like that would actually struggle to do it ;) finance is a funny thing. If they were on the rocks that badly there are potentially 10's of companies with the capital and the desire to buy them up in entirety. It ain't going to happen though. This slight wobble coupled with the loss of their leading light / genius (Bill) hit them hard IMO but not in an unrecoverable way.

(and I'm not going to expound about capitalism...)

BTW I dont get this:
[quote]Take your point, chaos/catastrophe theory, so feared by insurance companies and dismissed or not grasped by global warming critics[/quote]
I'm a GW critic (depnding on your interpretation of the word critic) and I also understand Chaos Theory (it's a fascinating model actually, although potentially flawed - your on very dodgy ground applying it to GW, though, if your a supporter of the idea of GW (over climate change)). I dont see how it supports the demise of M$ and co in particular over the potential exponential growth (or 101 other different paths) of said companies. In fact I think it would be more likely to show a self sustaining net between these super-companies (I dont know if you have done much CT based math but it really sucks :P). Perhaps you meant Game Theory (which applies much better and at this point probably favours your model for M$).

But sorry that's a bit of a digression from the topic :)

Good discussion!

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Dangerous Dave — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:22:34 GMT

I think you might have hit the nail on the head there Bruce . . .

To paraphrase Churchill said "It has been said that Capitalism is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried." Maybe free-market capitalism has had it's day, certainly the strongest proponents would be the first to suffer - Microsoft included.

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Bruce R — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:44:48 GMT

Take your point, chaos/catastrophe theory, so feared by insurance companies and dismissed or not grasped by global warming critics could apply to the demise of Microsoft, or even Intel. However, I never under-estimate human ingenuity and resilience. With British Army engineer help, German industry soon recovered from much technology pillage. (Except for the 'space race'.) (Memories of 'Dr Strangelove', 'our' versus 'your' German scientists.) ;)
In times of dwindling resources, I can't help feeling that it's the US business model that's dying rather than Microsoft, but time will tell. Interesting times, with China rising. :w00t:

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Dangerous Dave — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:14:35 GMT

True, but Linux's backers have (in recent years) been large hardware manufacturers and system integrators such as AMD, Intel, IBM, HP, Novell etc. At the moment they make money by bundling Linux as a "Free OS" with the mainframe systems that they supply on a turn-key basis. Once they sniff a profit oppurtunity I fear that something like what I predict may come true . . . :(

Of course, Linux would continue as a community-driven OS under this model as well. But the $$$ that have persuaded NVidia and Apples QT division to invest in Linux won't be there. Thus, those iconoclasts amongst us who cleave to a "hobbyist" Linux will have to rely on reverse-engineered versions of drivers and media apps - which take longer to develop, are fraught with legal difficulties and can be voided by a twist in the codec.

Also, most of Microsoft's value is in stock, stock-options and the investment loans raised against them. Like most companies they keep very little hard cash in the bank. The end could be swift - but the bankruptcy fire-sale could be veeerrrrry interesting :D. Probably a lot like the scramble to get German aeronautics technology by the allies after WWII ;)

[quote][b]Bruce R (21/07/2008)[/b][hr]Hi Dangerous Dave :)
I think that you might have under-estimated the Free and Open Source community's ability to come up with acceptable alternatives, but here's another thought. If the likes of extreme US business model folk like AutoCAD look like like getting strapped for an OS, why not include a 'free OS' in the package ? ;)
(Can I can already hear the likes of Novell and Linspire sales staff scrambling for their address books and revenue calculators ?) :D
Mind you a behemoth like Microsoft will take a long time dying, and I can even see a future Windows deciding to include 'free hardware' to run it on. :w00t:[/quote]

RE: Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Bruce R — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:51:25 GMT

Hi Dangerous Dave :)
I think that you might have under-estimated the Free and Open Source community's ability to come up with acceptable alternatives, but here's another thought. If the likes of extreme US business model folk like AutoCAD look like like getting strapped for an OS, why not include a 'free OS' in the package ? ;)
(Can I can already hear the likes of Novell and Linspire sales staff scrambling for their address books and revenue calculators ?) :D
Mind you a behemoth like Microsoft will take a long time dying, and I can even see a future Windows deciding to include 'free hardware' to run it on. :w00t:

Re: Mark Pick article "Is Windows Dying?"

Dangerous Dave — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:12:29 GMT

Well, not withstanding this thread in the Mag feedback section -http://forum.micromart.co.uk/Topic293657-40-1.aspx

I enjoyed the MP article, well researched and some interesting angles. However, there was an elephant in the room, namely:

What happens when Windows finally dies?

The business world will still need an OS, and apart from Apple, I can't see any immediate successor. Now all the Linux guru's will be frothing over their keyboards at the moment, but wait a minute before you get the verbal flamethowers out! ;)

There is a lot of third-party code in Windows that is licenced from other companies. It's mainly media codec's and drivers, but a "free" OS like Linux can't include it because the GPL and "free as in Beer" distribution system is incompatible with the per-customer licencing structure these Third-Party add-ons require. I've been pondering this (but not too much, :) ) and see it falling out one of three ways:

1/. Everyone starts using MacOS, as it includes versions of most of the required Third Party code. Unlikely, as there'd need to be a huge investment in hardware, unless Jobs starts selling the OS separately for compatible WinTel systems (Designed for Mac, anyone?)

2/. Microsoft releases a Linux distro (Windows 8?), include the required code and sell it at a premium - stressing the "value-added" over other Linuxes. Not a unlikely as it seems, MS did actually have a Unix flavour in the '80s. But the amount of humble pie that would need to be eaten will definately squash this one :P

3/. The bigger (Suse, Red Hat, Mandriva, PCLinuxOS et. al.) Linux distro's include the required Third Party code into their "enterprise class" Distro's and start charging for them. This is a much more likely proposition, and arguably is beginning to already happen (the relationship between RHEL and Fedora being a case in point).

So, all is rosy in the garden, no? Well, I'm getting a shiver down my back at this thought. Is anyone here old enough and bold enough to remember the "Unix Wars"? Back in the late '80s and early '90s, there were many vendors of System V Unix (the AT&T version not the BSD version). Companies like IBM, SUN, HP, Sco, Novell, Microsoft and others were all selling it as an OS. Note, that this was the *same* OS in all cases.

Then, one of them decided that they weren't *differentiated* enough and there was no *vendor lockin* to persuade customers to stick with the vendor's other "great" products for Unix (basically customers would buy Unix from IBM and then go to SUN for an Enterprise DBM). So, this company (I don't know who started it) started shipping a different Shell from the others, or some library files would be missing, that "just happened" to be required by a competitors application (but not be the originator's) - I'm sure you get the picture.

Pretty soon *all* the Unix vendors were at it, some more blatantly than others (Solaris was originally Sun Unix, you know), with the result that the Server/Workstation world was filled with versions of the *same OS* that refused to work with applications and utilities from competing companies in any number of small, subtle, but fatal ways. A real "car crash". :(

Now, I mention all this beacuse if Red Hat, SUSE, Mandriva et. al. start offering paid-for versions of Linux with third-party code in them, I can see that they'll want to maximise the market for their Distro over the others. And the easiest way to do that? Yeah, you're smart kids . . . you guessed it.

BTW, if you've ever experienced dll hell on Windows - it's a walk in the park compared to troubleshooting static and dynamic libraries on a *nix system - where even different versions of the same library can cause the whole thing to fatally crash :crying: